IMF lowers global economic growth forecast
April 23, 2025
The API inventory estimates called crude oil inventories down 4.6 million barrels, gasoline inventories down 1.6 million barrels, and distillate inventories down 2.2 million barrels.
The US issued fresh sanctions targeting an Iranian LNG and crude oil shipping baron and his corporate network. This is despite progress in talks with Iran concerning their nuclear program. This supported prices as traders worry about fewer supplies from Iran.
Due to the trade war the IMF lowered its global economic growth forecast down to 2.8% for 2025 versus lasts month’s forecast of 3.3% growth.
US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, said that the tariff standoff with China is unsustainable and that he expects the situation to de-escalate. This news was seen by many as positive and the energy markets rallied on this new overnight.
Chevron Corp’s CEO, Mike Wirth, said the reaction to trade issues has led to the expectation of reduced oil demand.
The average estimates for today’s DOE inventory report from the Bloomberg survey is for crude stocks to build by 1.708 million barrels, gasoline stocks to decline by 1.229 million and distillates to decline by 113,000 barrels.
The estimate for today’s propane inventory update is for stocks to build by 1.32 million barrels.
Crude oil prices are getting some downside pressure from comments by Kazakhstan’s energy minister saying that the country cannot reduce oil output and will prioritize national interest over OPCE+.
Goldman Sachs said Brent crude prices will fall to the low $60 per barrel by the end of the year even without a US recession. The bank said Brent prices fell from high $60s per barrel in early April due to a potential US-Iran nuclear deal and broader economic concerns, including the Trump administration’s pressure on the Federal Reserve. It also cited weaker than expected March petroleum demand in Europe and India and the resumption of oil supply following the restart of the Keystone Pipeline after a spill earlier this month. In addition, the bank pointed to tighter than expected draws on commercial oil stocks in OECD member countries and said disappointing oil demand in Europe. The bank, however, said tight physical oil market should help to support crude prices.