IEA Lowers Crude Oil Demand Forecast
February 16, 2024
The energy markets are closed on Monday 2-19-2024 for Presidents’ Day, there is no forward contracts on that day.
The energy markets continue to be up and down as the news and new data points come out and there appears to be no clear direction at this point. Crude oil was up and down in yesterday’s trading. Both RBOB and ULSD were higher and lower and settled in the middle of the day’s trading range.
Initial jobless claims came in lower than expected, with jobless claims falling to 212,000 versus the outlook for an increase to 220,000. Retail sales were also down more than the outlook. The poor retail sales data helped to put the idea of rates cuts on the back burner and that caused the US dollar to sell off and that offered support to crude oil yesterday.
News out of Libya suggest new protest threatens to shut down an export facility with roughly 100,000 bpd capacity. If this does happen and drag on it offers support to crude prices.
The market is also looking at a possible short squeeze on WTI Crude Oil at Cushing, Ok the NYMEX delivery point. Supplies are low and as the contract nears expiration traders who are short will need to buy to unwind their positions and that could rally prices.
BP says they will attempt and restart at the Whiting Indiana Refinery next week or maybe even this weekend.
IEA lowered its crude oil demand forecast putting some pressure on crude prices yesterday.