IEA forecasts weaker demand, crude surplus in 2025
March 14, 2025
The IEA see a crude oil surplus in 2025 as demand is seen as disappointing. The IEA trimmed its demand growth forecast by 70,000 bpd. It sees a surplus of 600,000 bpd in crude supply over demand. It says the latest sanctions on Russia and Iran seem to have had little impact on supply. Growth in global crude demand is expected at 103 million bpd this year with most gains coming from Asia, especially from China. This report was a big part of the market’s pullback yesterday. There continues to be a lot of uncertainty and no conviction in these markets, so we get these up and down days as a reaction to the most recent headline.
Trade war tensions have shaken up investors, consumers and business confidence with US equities falling significantly this week despite bullish fundamentals in energy showing tighter than expected oil and fuel inventories. The US supply and demand still appear fairly bullish but tariff perceptions hurting economies appear to be dominating even with lower inflation and lower unemployment claims.
The potential for a 30-day ceasefire news between Russia and Ukraine also helped the bearish market yesterday but as time goes on Putin has brought up objections and the need for clarification that puts all this in jeopardy.