HSB expects oil surplus in 2025, 2026
March 19, 2025
The API called crude stocks up 4.59 million barrels, gasoline stocks were down 1.71 million barrels, and distillates were down 2.15 million barrels.
HSB expects the oil markets to be in surplus in 2025 and 2026 due to strong supply and sluggish demand growth. The bank said it expects a surplus of 200,00 bpd this year, revising its previous forecast for a balanced market. HSBC maintained its 2025 Brendt crude oil price forecast at $73 per barrel, with risk screwed to the downside. It also maintained its 2026 price forecast at $70 per barrel. It said if Brent prices fall to the mid-$60s, it would not rule out OPEC+ pausing its output increases expected to start in April. The bank expected the 2026 oil markets surplus to increase to over 1 million bpd if OPEC+ continues to increase production as planned.
US President Donald Trump said his call with Russian President Vladimir Putin was “very good and productive” and that they discussed many elements of a peace dela for Ukraine.
Crude oil price closed slightly lower yesterday after news that Russi and Ukraine agreed to not attack energy infrastructure for the next 30 days, which fell short of the ceasefire deal hoped for. Earlier in the day, crude oil price reached a two-week high on worries Middle East escalation could reduce oil supplies and hope economic stimulus in China and German could boost demand for the fuel in two of the world’s biggest economies.