How much did the US damage Iran’s nuclear facilities?
June 27, 2025
The energy markets have taken all the risk premium out of the market and are now searching for direction as there is still a lot of uncertainty.
OPEC+ is scheduled to meet again on July 6th to discuss August production, and the market is expecting them to offer another production hike of 411,000 barrels per day.
The question remains about how much damage the US attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities did. We will never really know the whole truth, but it does appear that there was some severe damage and the action by the US did set Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons back. This has weakened their negotiation position and brought up questions about Iran’s crude exports. The US had previously said it would ease sanctions if Iran voluntarily ended their nuclear program. But if the US did severe damage to this program, the US may not be as ready to ease sanctions.
Distillate inventories are low. I’m not sure this fact has been noticed by the market. Of course, the overall outlook is that demand will be lower and supplies higher, putting pressure on prices. This will be a point to watch going forward. Diesel inventories are below the 5-year average minimum.
I will be out all next week, so there will be no comments or contract price estimates.