Housing Data Suggest US Economy May Be Slowing Down
August 17, 2022
The API inventory report said that crude oil stocks were down 448,000 barrels, gasoline inventories were down 4.5 million barrels and distillate stocks were down 759,000 barrels.
The average estimates for today’s DOE inventory update from the Bloomberg survey are for crude oil stocks to be down 259,000 barrels, gasoline down 1.180 million barrels, and distillates up 911,000 barrels.
The US housing market starts for July came in well below an expected market range yesterday down to a 1.5 year low, this data raises the concern about the US economy slowing down. Failed home purchase deals jump up again last month. In July 16% of properties that went into contract were canceled.
Barclays thinks that crude oil is going to be oversupplied in the near term as Russia continues to sell its production. Barclays cut its Brent crude oil forecast by $8 per barrel for 2022 and 2023, down to $103 for both years. Barclays also cut their WTI crude oil forecast down to $99 for 2022 and 2023.
The following is from Bloomberg. Global oil markets face a high risk of a supply squeeze as demand remains resilient and spare production capacity dwindles, the new head of OPEC told Bloomberg Television. Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais also said fears over slowing consumption in China and elsewhere have been exaggerated.
Propane inventories are estimated to build by 1.8 million barrels in today’s inventory update. The five year average for this reporting week is a build of 2.079 million barrels.
The following is some interesting information from the EIA on propane. Although domestic propane demand has been relatively flat, US propane exports have increased as a result of strong global demand. On an annual basis, the United States has exported more propane than is has consumed in every year since 2017. Global demand for propane has risen because of its use as a petrochemical feedstock in propane dehydrogenation units and flexible feedstock crackers, particularly in Asia.