Goldman Sachs expects elevated oil prices into 2027
March 20, 2026
US Secretary, Scott Bessent, said the US may soon remove sanctions from Iranian oil that is stranded on tankers to help lift global supplies and reduce prices. He said it is about 140 million barrels of oil.
Axios reported that the Trump administration is considering plans to occupy or blockade Iran’s Kharg Islan to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The Wall Street Journal reported that oil officials in Saudi Arabia are projecting that oil prices could soar past $180 per barrel if disruptions due to the Iran war persist until late April.
Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Japan issued a joint statement on Thursday saying they were ready to join appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and would take steps to stabilize energy markets.
The foreign ministers of 12 Muslim-majority countries meeting in Riyadh denounced Ian’s strikes on Gulf neighbors, calling for an immediate halt.
Goldman Sachs said that risks to oil prices remain skewed to the upside both in the near term and into 2027. The bank added that the persistence of several past large supply shocks highlights the possibility oil prices could remain above $100 per barrel.
According to Bloomberg, over the next month, after this period of further escalation in the US-Israel war against Iran, a shift to a lower intensity conflict is the most likely outcome. According to Bloomberg analysis, an escalation remans a key risk, while a ceasefire or Iran’s complete capitulation are possible but less likely. The analyst said there is medium likelihood of a high intensity war in the next 4 weeks, resulting in oil prices increasing to $110 per barrel, higher inflation, and slower growth. Under a lower intensity war, which is highly likely, oil prices will trade at about $80 per barrel and inflation would increase modestly along with a moderate impact on growth. In case of a ceasefire or a collapse of the Iranian government, oil price would fall to $65 per barrel.
In an interview with the Financial Times, the International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol warned that it could take up to six months to restore oil and gas flows from the Gulf, saying the world is facing what could be the most severe energy crisis in history. He said politicians and markets were underestimating the scale of the disruption, with around one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies effectively stranded in the region.