Geopolitical concerns are pushing prices higher
January 9, 2026
How can the US be getting 30 to 50 million barrels of oil in an already oversupplied market, and prices go higher? There must be more to this market outlook than Venezuelan oil, and I think it is the country itself. How can anyone know how it will be governed and run now? There are so many unknowns. I am cautious to say this, but Venezuela’s oil is really a non-factor at this point. The market appears focused on rising geopolitical concerns worldwide and the increased uncertainty these situations (Russia, Iran, Iraq, Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Venezuela) have brought to the market.
The US refined 16.3 million bpd of crude oil on average in 2025, the highest since before the global pandemic. China refined 14.65 million bpd just shy of its annual record of 14.75 million bpd set in 2023. China also took in record crude imports of 11.35 million bpd in 2025 despite a sharp pivot towards electric cars. One of the big questions for the energy markets this year is will China continue to stockpile barrels.
The protest in Iran have increased and this news along with President Trump comments that he will intervene if the regime harms protesters. New reports have also said that members of a union at two Iranian refineries joined the protestors and went on strike raising the concerns about supply disruptions. Satellite imagery indicates that Iran is beginning to rebuild its nuclear program, and that news may have added to yesterday’s market rally.