Fuel Stocks Run Below Three-Year Average
April 22, 2021
Propane inventories were down 74,000 barrels putting total stocks at 40.514 million barrels. Total stocks last year were at 57.442 million a 16.928 difference. The five year rolling average total stocks is 48.836 million an 8.322 million difference. Midwest stocks were up 303,000 barrels putting total Midwest stocks at 10.098 million barrels. Midwest stocks last year were at 10.759 million barrels a 661,000 barrel difference and the five year rolling average stocks levels are 11.373 million a 1.275 million difference. Gulf Coast stocks were down 494,000 barrels putting total Gulf Coast stocks at 24.389 million barrels. Last year there were 41.066 million a 16.677 million barrel difference and the five year rolling average stocks are 32.760 million barrels an 8.371 million barrel difference. Prompt price have been testing lower and the outer months are not falling much which has put this market into a very slight carry which indicates that the current demand is soft and if this trend continues it could pay companies to store barrel for a later date.
The DOE inventory report said that crude stocks were 590,000 barrels putting total stocks at 493.017 million barrels. Last year there were 518.640 million barrels a 25.623 million difference. Cushing, Oklahoma crude stocks were down 1.318 million barrels putting total stocks at 45.350 and last year at this time there were 59.741 million barrels. Both total US stocks and Cushing stocks are about I the middle of their three year range. Stocks have come down since the beginning of the year but still sit in decent shape.
Gasoline stocks were up 85,000 barrels putting total stocks at 234.982 million barrels. Lat year at this time there were 263.234 million barrels a 28.252 million barrel difference. Overall gas stocks are on the lower end of the 3 year range, but the Midwest is below its three year average range and the Gulf Coast is below its three year average range, which both of these are concerns. Refineries have been running hard to make gasoline and the crack spread are good to give them a reason to as well. As has been mentioned here before the outlook for the second half of the year is for strong demand so refineries are doing all they can to make gas and try to get ahead of the expected demand.
Distillate stocks were down 1.073 million barrels putting total stocks at 142.391 million barrels. Last year at this time there were 136.880 million barrels a 5.511 million barrel difference. Stocks in the Midwest are below the three-year average range and are a bit concerning. But refineries are running to try and make as much gas as they can but distillates are a part of that process so stocks will hopefully build. But, just like gas, the outlook for diesel demand for the second half of the year is strong. Both gas and diesel will be a race against time to try and build stocks before demand arrives.