Fed looks to cut rates
December 10, 2025
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates at their meeting today. Is this news already baked into prices or will the market trader higher on this news. This would certainly be positive but there is still tons of uncertainty surrounding these markets and no clear path forward.
The peace talks and the impact all that will have in terms of Russian production is a huge factor for prices and there is still a lot of work to take place on that front. Ukraine’s Zelensky will present a revised peace proposal to the US and is also ready for a ceasefire on attacking energy infrastructure should Russia agree. The market will wait and see if there is more concrete information before jumping on board this news.
The CPC terminal in the Black Sea was seriously damaged due to Ukrainian drone attacks. The export terminal is a major one for Kazakhstan oil and its full capacity is nearly 1.2 million barrels per day. It is supposed to reopen by December 13, but crude oil storage sites are filling up, and Kazakhstan may have to curtail prodctuion as this export terminal is vital to offloading crude oil.
The API inventory report had crude down 4.78 million, gasoline up 1.03 and distillates up 7 million.
Average estimate for today’s DOE inventory report from the Bloomberg Survey are crude stocks down 2.16 million, gasoline up 2.069 million, and distillate up 1.421 million.
In its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the US EIA raised its 2025 oil production forecast but lowered its expectations for 2026 prodctuion levels. It reported that oil prodctuion will average 13.61 million bpd in 2025, the highest level on record. Next year, total output will decline by 80,000 bpd to 13.53 million bpd. The EIA raised its forecast for 2026 for US oil demand by 100,000 bpd and expects demand to be flat year on year at 20.6 million bpd. The EIA said the price of WTI will average $65.32 per barrel in 2025, up from its estimate last month of $65.15 per barrel. Brent crude prices will average $68.91 per barrel in 2025, up from a previous forecast of $68.76 per barrel.
The average estimate for today’s propane inventory report is for inventories to decline by 2.7 million barrels.