Escalating Middle East attacks keep pressure on crude
October 22, 2026
The headlines are mixed today on both bullish and bearish news, and this has created big market swings. Bearish headlines hit the wire and prices selloff then later a bullish news item comes out and prices rally back. The last few days have seen big trading ranges and then the markets settle near unchanged on the day showing how the headlines are moving prices and there is still just a ton of uncertainty for these markets.
The DOE Inventory report had crude oil inventories down 3.06 million to a total of 412.517 and last year supplies were 422.824, and the three-year average is 423.323. Gasoline supplies were down 2.95 million putting total supplies at 205.310, last year 216.679, and the three-year average is 217.904. Distillates were up 1.68 million barrels, putting total stocks at 104.286 and last year there were 115.551, and the three-year average is 113.826.
Prices were higher to start yesterday as all the headlines were bullish and the escalation of attacks was real. Later in the day the news broke that there was progress on peace talks and that the US was going to release nearly one third of the 1-million-barrel heating oil reserve in the Northeast to ease the squeeze on diesel. These news items sold the mark off hard. Then the news hit that Iran was back on the attack and was threatening US bases and ships in the Strait of Hormuz. All this news rallied prices back higher and the market did settle higher for the day.
The US continues to roll back restrictions on Russia which still does not seem to be resulting in additional loadings just yet. Russia says they may fully restore diesel exports by year-end. Ukraine may have something to say about that, as there has been no breakthroughs in those negotiations.
Propane inventories were down 529,000 barrels, putting total supplies at 105.846 million, last year 103.175, five-year average 94.304. Supplies are still ample but as has been the case we continue to hear about exports out of the gulf eating into the large surplus, despite the current outlook for a mild winter. Midwest stocks were up 398,000 barrels to a total of 26.083, last year 27.959, five-year average 26.678. Gulf Coast propane stocks were down 789,000 barrels, putting total stocks at 65.939, last year 60.925, five-year average 53.130.