Energy Prices Fall on Concerns of Slowing World Demand
December 8, 2023
Crude oil and refined fuels products price fell slightly in yesterday’s trading stretching into a 6th day of declines. Adding to the downward pressure yesterday, China crude oil imports fell by 10% in November to a 4-month low of 10.37 million bpd. However, China total exports grew for the first time in 6 months in November suggesting manufacturing is recovering with global economy recovering some.
Energy prices have fallen this week driven mainly by slowing world demand concerns with GDP expected to be very low in Q4 in the US and in Europe. The market is also skeptical of the OPEC+ voluntary oil output cuts for Q1 2024 in addition to demand concerns with China with credit being downgraded by Moody’s.
The ADP jobs number on Wednesday was not supportive of economic growth as 103,000 new jobs were created in November, well below the 123,000 new jobs expected. Today we get the Labor Deprtments jobs(non-farm payrolls) report and the expectation from economist is for there to be 190,000 (Bloomberg). This is a strong number and if the actual numbers are close to this it would be a positive for the economy. Well, the jobs number is out, and it is 199,000 new jobs. This is better than expected and the unemployment rate was down to 3.7% from and forecast of 3.9%. The US economy continues to surprise me. Adding to the uncertainty around the economy I saw a comment yesterday that there has only been arguably one soft landing in the past fifty years, and ever that one is questionable.
On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called for all OPEC+ members to join an agreement on oil output cuts, saying they were for the good of producers and the broader global economy. Hours after the two leaders’ meeting, the Kremlin released a joint statement detailing wide-ranging talks between them on oil, OPEC+, the wars in Gaza and Ukraine and even Iran’s nuclear program.