End of Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Adds Uncertainty to Market
December 5, 2023
Crude oil and ULSD prices fell in yesterday’s trading, but RBOB gasoline price rose slightly. Downward pressure is coming from recent economic reports showing poorer manufacturing and contraction in the US and Eurozone for November. There are also mixed reports on China’s economy with some experts anticipating a world economic and energy demand slowdown in 2024.
The news of the end of the ceasefire and fighting in Gaza puts a bit of support into the market as this creates uncertainty for the Middle East.
WTI crude oil has traded to $72 dollars and this level has held up as support for now. The market also know that the US government is supposed to be a buyer at $70 dollars to refill the SPR. This should also be a supportive factor, but the market can overreact, and the current sentiment seems to be pretty negative but there are also challenges.US Deputy Energy Secretary, David Turk, said the US is taking advantage of low oil prices and refilling the SPR as much as it can. However, he said the amount is limited by physical constraints in the caverns. He said the Biden Administration may not be able to take full advantage of the recent fall in oil prices. The Energy Department, which solicited a request for 3 million more barrels for the reserve, said it has “secured” 12 million barrels for the reserve, including the direct purchase of 9 million barrels and the return of 4 million barrels from oil companies.
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said OPEC+ oil production cuts can “absolutely” continue past the first quarter if needed, as he pledged the cuts would be delivered in full. He said the supply reductions of more than 2million bpd will only be withdrawn after consideration of the market conditions and using a “phased-in approach.”
WTI crude oil is testing near the November 16th low of $72.16 and this could be a point of support. If this is solid support the bulls need a strong rebound to suggest this could be a potential double bottom. Of course, crude oil and RBOB are still in their trading ranges by testing these recent lows and a rally could just keep energy congesting in their trading ranges. HO with the roller to the new month at a lower value is below its recent lows but is holding on support so far.