Distillate stocks near the top of 3-year range
December 12, 2024
The DOE inventory report had crude oil inventories down 1.43 million barrels putting total US crude oil stocks at 421.950 million barrels. Last year at this time stocks were at 440.773 and the three-year average is 431.063. Current inventory levels put crude at the lower end of the three-year range.
Gasoline inventories were up 5.09 million putting total stocks at 219.689 million barrels . Last year at this time stocks were at 224.013 million and the three-year average is 220.060 million barrels. Gasoline stocks have had builds over the last 4 weeks, but they are below the lower end of the three-year average range. Out of crude oil, gasoline and ULSD, gasoline is the one that has the biggest inventory concerns and is the most bullish at this point.
Distillate supplies were up 3.24 million barrels and total stocks now sit at 121.335 million barrels and last year there were 113.539 and the three-year average is 119.156. Distillate stocks are near the upper end of the 3-year range in a comfortable spot at this point in time.
Propane inventories were down 2.979 million barrels putting total propane stocks at 93.053 million barrels. Last year inventories were at 95.925 million barrels and the 5-year rolling average is 85.280 million barrels. Midwest inventories were down 863,000 barrels putting total stocks at 25.751and last year at this time there were 28.697 and the five-year rolling average is 24.803 million barrels.
This is a bit misleading as we need to remember there was a huge adjustment to the upside on Midwest inventories in December last year. I do not recall all the details, but the EIA had been understating the increase adjustment in December. This makes December a distorted number. It’s not a huge deal, but it impacts the recent reports, as yesterday’s report shows Midwest stocks below last year, which is not the case. This will eventually even out over time, but I just wanted to point this out as a reminder to all of us. Gulf Coast inventories were down 2.418 million barrels, putting total Gulf Coast stocks at 53.271 million. last year’s stocks were 51.921 million, and the 5-year rolling average is 48.085 million. Propane inventories are still in good shape.