Deutsche Bank Predicts Deep US Downturn in 2023
April 29, 2022
Crude oil and product prices rose yesterday on the news that Germany has significantly reduced dependence on Russian oil and plans to find an alternative source within the next few weeks. Originally Germany was against banning Russian oil until 2023 and about 32% of the oil was received from Russia. In March, Germany had reduced Russian oil down to 25%, and as of Tuesday is only 12%. The Economic Minister of Germany said the EU embargo on Russian oil imports is now possible within a few weeks. With the possibility of the EU banning Russian oil, prices continue to rise.
Energy prices have been on a tear to the upside as well as other commodities and many items. As prices rise the big banks and investment companies push out more recession predictions. Deutsche Bank economist warned of a deep US downturn next year. Goldman Sachs Group has said the chances of a contraction in the economy is at about 35% over the next two years. Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research places the odds of a US recession at 30% next year, up from an earlier forecast of 15%. All of this is reported by Bloomberg.
Central Banks tightening the money supply around the world to try and cool inflation is also a threat to the global economy and adds to recession concerns. This is front and center here in the US where The Fed is looking to raise rates at the next meeting in early May.
Libyan supply has been impacted by civil unrest, which is a common event in Libya. But it is in the news and capturing headline that 550,000 BPD of crude production is currently offline.