Coronavirus Stimulus Looks Unlikely for Now
September 11, 2020
Propane stocks built by 2.158 million barrels this was less than the expectations, but total stocks are now at 97.380 million barrels near all-time highs. Midwest stocks were up 595,000 barrels putting total stocks at 26.449 million barrels 393,000 below the five year average and 519,000 below last year. Gulf Coast stocks were up 369,000 barrels putting total stocks at 56.974 million barrels 7.732 million more than the five year average and 2.394 million above last year. With crude selling off this week propane has felt a bit of selling pressure as the market waits on the arrival of winter.
US crude stocks were up 2.03 million in the DOE inventory report yesterday versus an estimate for stocks to be down 1.4 million. Gasoline stocks were down 2.95 million barrels versus an estimate of a 2.4 million decline. Distillates were down 1.68 million barrels versus an estimate of a decline of 557,000.
Total crude stocks sit at 500.434 million barrels 84.366 million more than last year at this time. Total gasoline stocks are at 231.905 million barrels 3.001 million more than last year. Gasoline inventories are 3% above the five year average, the smallest overhang since mid-March. The draws to gasoline stocks are more the result of lower refinery runs than increased demand. But the small excess compared to the much larger overhangs on crude and distillates give the bulls something to talk about to support their outlook. Total distillates are at 175.845 million which is 39.619 million more than last year.
“The market was a little surprised by the build given that much of the Gulf of Mexico production had not returned but this was offset as refineries have struggled to return after Hurricane Laura,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, noting: “the decline in gasoline and distillate demand was another disappointment.”
The US Senate killed a $300 billion coronavirus aid bill written by Senate Republican leadership, as Democrats blocked the measure on a procedural vote. The uncertainty of another aid bill keeps concerns about demand recovery alive and is a headwind for the bulls.