Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Falls
December 23, 2020
Markets are close tomorrow Thursday and Friday so there will be NO forward contracting and no commentary.
The US Commerce Department reported that the US economy grew at a record pace in the third quarter, fueled by more the $3 trillion in pandemic relief. GDP rebounded at a 33.4% annualized rate last quarter. That was revised slightly up from the 33.1% pace reported last month. It followed a 31.4% rate of contraction in April -June quarter, the deepest since the government started keeping records in 1947. The economy remains 3.5% below its level at the end of 2019. The average GDP and GDI, as referred to as gross domestic output and considered a better measure of the economic activity, increased 29.6% in the July-September period. It was revised slightly higher from the previously reported 29.2% pace and followed a 32% rate of decline in the second quarter. Consumer spending which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, led the broad recovery last quarter, accelerating at a 41% rate, rather than the previously estimated 40.6% pace. Business spending was revised up to 22.9% rate in the third quarter form the previously reported 21.8% pace.
The US consumer confidence unexpectedly fell in December, likely as a deterioration in the labor market offset the rolling out of a vaccine for COVID-19. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 88.6 in December from 92.9 in November.
After the close of trading yesterday the API reported a 2.7 million barrel build to US crude oil stocks. The estimates for today’s DOE government report is for stocks to be down 3.2 million barrels. API had gasoline stocks down 224,000 barrels and for today the estimate is up 1.2 million barrels. Distillates were up 1 million barrels and the estimate for today is for them to be down 904,000.
Propane average estimates for today are for supplies to be down 2.375 million barrels.
President Trump has called into question the $900 billion Covid relief bill passed by Congress. He urged Congress to make a number of changes with the biggest ones a call for more money paid to individuals from $600 to $2000 and $4000 for couples. Nancy Pelosi, one of President Trumps biggest rivals surprisingly agreed with the Presidents call and she tweeted. “Democrats are ready to bring this to the Floor this week by unanimous consent. Let’s do it.” President Trump is not expected to veto this bill so we will see how they hash this out.