Consumer confidence fell dramatically in April
April 30, 2025
The energy markets pulled back in yesterday’s trading, and this is encouraging for the bears, but they need to do more and take out support levels if these markets are going to test lower levels.
The API had crude oil supplied up 3.76 million barrels, gasoline down 3.14 million barrels and distillates down 2.52 million barrels.
The average estimates for today’s DOE inventory report from the Bloomberg Survey are crude down 790,000 barrels, gasoline down 1.350 million barrels and distillates down 1.732 million barrels.
US consumer confidence fell dramatically in April 2025 much more than expected and US job openings fell by 3.9% in April 2025. But US equites rose again for the sixth straight day.
The fear of a recession is a big factor putting downside pressure on prices. It was also report that China’s factory orders slipped into the worst contraction since December 2023, suggesting early damage from the US tariffs and prompting calls for a speedy policy boost, according to Bloomberg.
According to Morgan Stanely, Brent futures prices are pointing to near-term tightness while also showing a “meaningful surplus” further out. Morgan Stanley analysts said the Brent forward curve is downward sloping across the first nine contracts and upward sloping thereafter. The analysts said the contango after the night month signals a rapid weakening later this year, with slowing demand and strong supply growth driving a surplus. Morgan Stanely estimates the Brent is expected to fall back into the low $60 per barrel later this year.