Citi forecasts $60 crude oil pricing
September 23, 2025
Citi analysts forecast Brent crude oil price would fall to $60 per barrel by year-end and average $62 per barrel between the second and fourth quarters of 2026, citing OPEC+ production increases and China’s stockpiling. The bank revised its global liquids balance outlook after OPEC+ announced plans to unwind an additional 1.63 million bpd of voluntary cuts starting in October 2025, adding slack to an already loosening global supply. By the end of 2026, Citi estimates global liquids inventories could increase to 10.9 million barrels, equivalent to 103 days of forward demand cover. Under a bear case scenario, Citi assigned a 30% probability of Brent prices falling below $60 per barrel, potentially to $50, on weaker global demand, faster growth in non-OPEC supply, and lower compliance among OPEC+ members. Its bullish scenario, with a 10% probability, could push Brent prices above $75 on increased geopolitical disruption. Global oil demand is expected to grow by 700,000 bpd in 2025 and 1 million bpd in 2026, though trade disputes could cut diesel consumption by as much as 300,000 bpd. Citi reaffirmed its Brent target of $60 per barrel over the next 6 to 12 months.
The energy markets look to be stuck in a trading range. Unless some major shakeup occurs that disrupts supplies or drastically impacts demand. The overall seasonal trends remain worth considering.
Iraq’s SOMO (State Organization for Marketing of Oil) said Iraq has increased oil exports following the gradual unwinding of voluntary production cuts under an OPEC+ agreement. SOMO’s director said the increased exports would generate hundreds of millions of dollars in additional revenues at current price level.
Refineries will be entering maintenance soon and this should decrease the demand for crude oil. IIR Energy reported that US oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1 million bpd of capacity in the week ending September 26.
Global crude oil inventories are on the low side so as of now the oversupply situation has not shown up and this offers some support to prices.
The OECD is warning that Donald Trump’s tariffs will harm the world economy.