Chinese oil refining flattens out
October 15, 2025
China’s refineries processed 488 million tonnes of crude and other feedstocks in the first eight months of the year, an increase of 16 million tonnes (+3%) compared with the same period in 2023, but still below the volume two years ago, as the country‘s oil consumption flattens out.
Crude oil closed down about 1.3% in yesterday’s trading mainly due to the International Energy Agency raising oil supply forecasts for 2025 and 2026 while lowering oil demand forecast. Also bearish for price are continued worries of US and China trade wars escalation and reducing energy demand for the two world’s largest consumers.
The EIA in a monthly report on 10-14-2025 raised their world oil supply growth forecast for 2025 up to 3 million bpd from 2.7 million bpd in last month’s report.
The IEA also said world oil supply growth for 2026 would rise by 2.6 million bpd. They also said world oil demand growth would only be 700,000 bpd for 2025 and 2026. This implies a large oil supply/demand excess.
OPEC in a monthly report on 10-9-2025 is forecasting a much tighter market than IEA saying world economies continue to show solid growth. OPEC kept its global oil demand growth rising by 1.6 million bpd for 2026 expecting a much slower transition to green energy than the IEA. OPEC is also implying a supply deficit in 2026 of 50,000 bpd.
Russia’s revenues from crude and fuels are said to have fallen in the month of September. Revenues in September were $13.13 billion compared to $13.58 billion in August. The attacks by Ukraine have had an impact on fuel exports which appears to be the key reason for the revenue decline. Crude exports increased but crude prices were down.
The DOE inventory report will not be available until tomorrow because of the Columbus Holiday on Monday.