Analysts Raise Crude Oil Pricing Forecasts
April 5, 2023
The API called crude stocks down 4.346 million barrels, gasoline down 3.970 million and distillates down 3.693 million. The crude oil stocks at Cushion, Ok were also called down 1.035 million.
The average estimates for today’s DOE inventor report from the Bloomberg survey is for crude oil to be down 1.597 million barrels, gasoline down 1.829 and distillates down 523,000.
Private payrolls rose by 145,000 in March down from 215,000 in February and below the estimates for 210,000. Some are seeing this as a sign that US economic growth is headed for a slowdown.
Goldman Sachs announced an increase to their price forecast to $95 by December and to $100 from April 2024 and beyond. There are plenty of other analysts and big banks that have raised their price outlooks on the OPEC+ news.
Rystad Energy said it believed the cuts will add to tightness in the oil market and lift prices above $100 per barrel for the rest of the year. UBS also expects Brent to reach $100 by June.
J.P. Morgan analysts said Brent oil prices could still end the year at $96 per barrel.
Barclays said the, ”Surprise production cut from OPEC+ implies $5 per barrel upside to our $92 per barrel price forecast for Brent this year, all else equal.”
Bank of America Securities see balance of risk improving for oil firms after a tough start to the year. It said OPEC+ action once again supports the idea that when not challenged for market share, Saudi Arabia will defend the price of oil.
There are some reports this morning that Iraq and the Kurdistan regional government have agreed to terms to resume the 450,000 bpd of crude oil exports from the Kurdistan region halted last week.