Trump outlines deal for Russian diesel fuel
October 13, 2026
Goldman Sachs estimates that Brent crude’s risk premium reached $22 per barrel in September, the second-highest monthly level on record. The bank noted that the peak monthly estimate following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 “did not exceed $16 per barrel,” according to WSJ Market Talk.
President Trump said Friday that Russia would supply more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel to U.S. and global markets, followed by another 500,000 metric tons in November. He also announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop attacking each other’s energy infrastructure. However, the ceasefire is already on shaky ground, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accusing Russia of violating the agreement Monday.
Trump’s diesel deal with Russia has drawn criticism, with some questioning whether the arrangement is even legal.
OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth this year by 400,000 barrels per day. The group also said shipping and insurance costs now account for roughly one-third of crude oil’s value amid increased risks to vessels. These elevated risks are helping put a floor under oil prices, despite the weaker demand outlook.
Another factor supporting prices is the threat of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, along with concerns about the kingdom’s ability to defend itself. If Saudi Arabia struggles to protect its energy infrastructure, the U.S. could become more deeply involved in Middle East conflicts, adding another layer of uncertainty for energy markets.