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The Supply Issue That Could Affect Your Next Oil Change

June 12, 2026

Written By Adam Buckallew

Spiking energy costs triggered by the conflict with Iran have everyone’s attention. Gas and diesel prices have risen sharply in recent months and aren’t expected to decline anytime soon. But the turmoil in the Middle East is also disrupting something most drivers rarely think about: the motor oil and lubricants that keep our cars, trucks, farm equipment, and industrial machinery running smoothly.

The Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association (ILMA) says refinery outages and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz caused by ongoing military action in the Persian Gulf have snarled the supply of key ingredients used to make modern motor oil, transmission fluid, gear oil and more.

You’ve probably never heard of Group III base oil, and for good reason. It’s a technical term for one of the primary ingredients in today’s synthetic motor oils. Group III oil is used to make most full-synthetic products, including those outside of the passenger car motor oil category. For example, while 0W-20 engine oil is the most common product, it’s also the base oil for other light viscosities like 5W-30, 0W-16, and 0W-8. Group III is also crucial for heavy-duty diesel formulations such as full-synthetic 5W-40 and 10W-30, and full-synthetic transmission fluids and gear oils. Group III base oil is even found in MFA Oil’s Work Horse X-Tra Guard universal tractor fluid.

A significant portion of the world’s Group III base oil supply comes from Middle Eastern sources in Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. According to ILMA, those countries account for 44% of U.S. Group III supplies. An additional 30% is produced in South Korea; however, those imports are also at risk as Korean manufacturers traditionally refine their base oils from crude sourced from the Middle East.

Industry analyst Thomas Glen, president of Petroleum Trends International and editor of JobbersWorld, called the situation “one of the most significant Group III supply disruptions the lubricant industry has experienced. Prices have risen sharply. Allocation programs have emerged. Spot market availability has tightened dramatically and concerns about future availability have spread throughout the lubricant supply chain.”

The supply chain squeeze has already led to higher prices and could result in fewer product choices and periodic shortages of certain lubricants.

Zach Studer, director of warehousing and quality control for MFA Oil, says most lubricant suppliers have already been hit with three waves of substantial price increases since March. Customers who haven’t purchased engine oil recently may experience sticker shock from the rising prices.

“Our costs have more than doubled,” Studer says. “In a normal year, we may see two or three price increases around 10 to 25 cents per gallon. The increases we’ve seen this year have been much steeper. The latest round increased our costs by about $3 per gallon on synthetics and up to $2.50 per gallon on non-synthetics products. We understand no one is excited about paying more, and neither are we. We’re doing everything we can to manage the situation for our members and customers.”

Studer noted MFA Oil maintained its existing pricing for as long as possible before passing those costs on to its members and customers, even honoring a planned sale in March and April. However, the magnitude of price increases has forced all retailers to adjust pricing.

MFA Oil continues to closely monitor lubricant markets and work with suppliers to help maintain reliable product availability for customers. While some products may experience price increases or longer lead times, our team is actively managing inventory and seeking solutions to minimize disruptions whenever possible. Additionally, the co-op is not taking on any new lubricant customers to ensure it can continue to supply existing customers as much as possible.

MFA Oil members and customers can help by planning routine maintenance in advance and communicating needs for specialty products or large-volume orders to their local MFA Oil office. Early planning can help ensure products are available when needed.