US-Iran Trade Threats
May 20, 2026
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Iran has threatened to spread the war beyond the Middle East if the United States attacks again. These comments were made after President Trump said he was with one hour of restarting the military campaign. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said in a statement carried on state media, “If aggression against Iran is repeated, the promised region war will extend beyond the regions this time.” Iran submitted a new proposal to the US this week, but it repeated terms previously rejected by President Trump.
The API inventory report had US crude oil inventories down 9.1 million barrels, gasoline inventories down 5.8 million barrels, and distillates down 1.4 million barrels.
The estimates for today’s DOE inventory report from the Bloomberg Survey are for crude supplies to be down 2.815 million barrels, gasoline down 2.657, and distillates down 1.308mmillion barrels.
A report that two Chinese tankers traversed the Strait of Hormuz with 4 million barrels of crude oil may be helping to put some downside pressure on crude price here in early trading.
South Korea reported that one of its tankers was passing through the strait. Reports have said that 54 ships used the strait last week, about double the number from the prior week.
Shell’s CEO, Wael Sawan, said the global events of the last few months have shown that meeting oil demand will be essential for decades to come.
Citi said it expects Brent crude oil to increase to $120 per barrel in the near term, stating that oil markets are underpricing the risks of a prolonged supply disruption and broader tail risk. It said its bull case scenario calls for Brent prices to reach $150 per barrel.
Energy prices were also supported lower in light of comments made by Vice President JD Vance who said the US and Iran made progress in talks, with neither country wanting a resumption of military action.