US-Iran getting closer to an agreement?
May 6, 2026
Axios reported, citing two officials, that the White House believes it is getting close to an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework from more detailed nuclear negotiations. According to the report, US expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours. The report cautioned that nothing has been agreed yet but said this was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began. This news about the progress of negotiations when it hit the wires started the selloff in energy futures prices and we are still much lower on this news. Traders and market participants will be watching the news to see if this progresses positively or if there is a setback. These markets are likely to be in for a few volatile days.
The API inventory report called crude oil supplies down 8.1 million barrels, gasoline inventories down 6.1 million barrels and distillate down 4.6 million barrels.
Chevron’s Chairman and CEO, Mike Wirth, said that physical shortages in oil supply would begin appearing around the world because of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He said economies will begin shrinking, first Asia, as demand adjusts to reduced supply with the strait still closed because of the US-Israel war with Iran.
Morgan Stanley said US gasoline inventories are drawing down sharply, heading toward historical summer lows, as a collapse in imports and shifts in refinery yield tighten supply. In their base case, analysts at the bank see US gasoline inventories falling to around 198 million barrels by the end of August, below the trough reached during the 2022 energy shock and the lowest level for this time of year.