Risk of protracted war rises
March 30, 2026
The risk of protracted war with Iran grew on Saturday as Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel since the start of the conflict, even as additional US forces reached the Middle East. The Houthis said they would continue their operations until the aggression on all fronts ended.
The Houthis’ entry into the conflict will allow them to threaten the Saudi export hub at Yanbu on the Red Sea, where the East-West (Petroline) pipeline terminates.
JP Morgan research indicates that with the Houthis now involved, it puts 5 million bpd of Saudi crude at risk, and their research indicates it has the potential to add $20 per barrel to oil prices.
The Houthis’ involvement has geographic implications as the conflict is now not just about the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz but also extends into the Red Sea and its narrowing at Bab el-Mandeb, one of the world’s most crucial checkpoints for crude and refined product flows. In effect, now two of the world’s major corridors of global energy trade are simultaneously narrowing, rerouting options, and increasing system-wide supply chain risk.
Baker Hughes reported on Friday that five crude oil rigs came offline this past week in the US, bringing the total to 409 rigs. The number of US oil rigs has not risen in 2026 since the war began.