High Yields, Hard Times
November 3, 2025
Written By Adam Buckallew
Rising expenses and weak markets are squeezing farm profits
Across the countryside, combines are rolling through a projected fall harvest of 21.5 billion bushels of corn, soybeans and grain sorghum, a 10% increase over last year. While silos are being filled to the brim, the bin-bursting crop is not expected to bring much financial relief. Balance sheets are buckling under the weight of high input prices and weak commodity prices.
Across the Corn Belt, the math just isn’t penciling out. Input costs that spiked during the pandemic have remained stubbornly high while grain prices have dropped below breakeven for many operations.
“The sobering reality is that many farmers are hurting,” said Zippy Duvall, a third-generation Georgia farmer who has served as president of the American Farm Bureau Federation for nearly a decade. “Talk to any farmer who grows row crops, and he or she will tell you they are struggling with the lowest prices in almost 20 years.”
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts cash receipts from crop sales to fall by $6.1 billion, or 2.5%, from $242.7 billion in 2024 to $236.6 billion in 2025. If that projection holds, crop cash receipts would sink to their lowest level since 2007.
The downturn comes as farmers face mounting financial pressure from myriad angles. Interest rates remain high, agricultural exports are stagnant or declining, input expenses continue to climb, and a government shutdown has halted access to USDA marketing assistance loans, a vital tool many producers use for cash flow during the harvest season.
USDA Eyes Competition
The dire circumstances challenging producers have drawn the attention of Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, who acknowledged “agriculture is under threat” during an appearance at the Ag Outlook Forum in downtown Kansas City, Mo., on Sept. 25.
“The cost of doing business for our farmers has increased drastically while commodity prices have slipped,” Rollins said.
The agriculture secretary proceeded to outline how costs are up across the board. Since 2020, seed expenses have risen by 18%, fuel costs have increased by 30%, electricity costs have jumped 36%, fertilizer costs are up 37%, machinery prices have grown by 45%, labor costs are up 47%, and interest expenses have ballooned 73% higher.
Rollins announced that USDA will work with the Department of Justice (DOJ) to closely examine the rising cost of agricultural inputs and ensure competitive supply chains under a memorandum of understanding.
“The DOJ will scrutinize competitive conditions in the agricultural marketplace, including antitrust enforcement that promotes free market competition,” Rollins said.
Interest rate reductions have been a frequent topic of concern for the White House, and Rollins said she would be more vocal with the Federal Reserve to advocate for farmers.
“The Fed needs to keep lowering rates so farmers and rural communities can finally see relief, and I’ll be talking about that as we move toward the next meeting of the Fed,” she said.
Sounding the Alarm
When representatives from the offices of Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.) and Rep. Rick Crawford (R-Ark.) scheduled a farm meeting in northeast Arkansas on Sept. 2, they intended to meet with a handful of farmers. However, word of the meeting spread, and over 400 producers stepped away from harvesting their fields to share their concerns with the officials in attendance.
Adam Chappell, who raises soybeans, rice and corn on 2,400 acres in eastern Arkansas, told Farm Journal’s Chris Bennett, “This is the worst agriculture economy of my lifetime over at least the past three years, and right this minute, guys are going under—as in bankruptcy or leaving the farm.”
Chappell says farmers are being squeezed by monopolistic practices, and as the last link in the supply chain, there is no way to pass those costs on to anyone else.
“Seed, chemicals or fertilizer, it’s all in the hands of a few companies that are the only game in town,” he said. “You want to fix farming? Start a federal investigation on those big companies. Booming quarterly earnings and big stock dividends make no sense when farmers can’t pinch a penny.”
Consolidation Concerns
A 2023 USDA study found that two companies supplied nearly 72% of the corn seeds and approximately 66% of the soybean seeds cultivated by U.S. farmers. Meanwhile, mergers and acquisitions in the fertilizer market have consolidated roughly 80% of the market among four primary corporate players.
In response to farmer concerns about rising fertilizer prices and competition, on Sept. 16, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) reintroduced the Fertilizer Research Act, bipartisan legislation that would look at how industry consolidation is driving up the cost of key inputs such as nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium.
Speaking from the U.S. Senate floor on Sept. 29, Grassley spoke of the stress farmers are dealing with in response to the difficult crop math, “losing $1.10 per bushel on corn and about $2 per bushel on soybeans,” as commodity prices have failed to keep up.
“It’s beginning to look like the 1980s agriculture depression all over…. Thousands of farmers went out of business in the 1980s, and that should concern us all,” he said.
The bill, which is backed by the National Corn Growers Association and the American Soybean Association, has yet to have a hearing and may not receive one for some time as legislators debate how to fund the federal government, which shut down on Oct. 1.
Trade and Aid
At the end of October, farmers received long-awaited trade news which should help buoy soybean prices. President Trump and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping struck a one-year truce in trade disputes, with China pledging an immediate $15 billion purchase of soybeans and commitments to maintain imports near 2023–24 levels through 2027. The announcement steadied soybean markets, which had been reeling from a lack of Chinese purchases in 2025, with soybean exports down 51% year-over-year before the deal.
China is the world’s largest grain buyer and traditionally has been the top buyer of U.S. soybeans. During the recent trade tensions with the U.S., China has been diversifying its imports by increasing purchases from Brazil and Argentina. The news that Xi approved at least 12 million metric tonnes of U.S. soybean purchases in the final two months of 2025 and at least 25 million metric tonnes in each of the next three years provides much-needed demand for U.S. growers.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said other countries in Southeast Asia have agreed to buy another 19 million tons of U.S. soybeans, but did not specify a timeframe for those purchases or the nations involved. Asian importers other than China have imported between 8 million and 10 million tons annually in recent years, according to U.S. Census Bureau trade data.
More relief could be on the way once legislators resolve the government shutdown. The White House is planning a multibillion-dollar farm support program, but administration officials are still finalizing how much money to include in the first round of aid, how to pay for it and how to deploy it.
Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), who chairs the Ag Appropriations panel, said a USDA Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) aid package is ready but stuck behind the shutdown: “It’s teed up and good to go… it’s really up to the president and ag secretary to decide on the timing.”
USDA has shifted $13 billion from the CCC to a new emergency fund to help farmers weather the tough circumstances. The move gives the USDA flexibility to deploy direct assistance quickly once the government reopens.
For now, many farmers are taking the trade breakthrough and pending aid as a much-needed glimmer of hope in a difficult year. The promise of renewed demand from China and Southeast Asia, combined with fresh USDA support, offers a lifeline to operations stretched thin. These developments provide a welcome shift toward stability and a glimmer of hope that next season will be better than the last.