Russian crude disruptions fuel energy uptick
September 17, 2025
Energy prices have now rallied for two days and are moving back up into middle and to the upper end of the recent ranges. There have been no market breakouts that now point to a market that can sustain a longer run higher. Traders will be watching to see how the markets react as they approach the upper limits of recent ranges to see if the bulls can rally prices through resistance.
The API called crude stocks to be down 3.42 million barrels gasoline down 379,000 barrels and distillates up 1.906 million barrels.
The average estimates from the Bloomberg survey for today’s DOE inventory report are for crude inventories to be up 1.859 million barrels, gasoline up 415,000 barrels and distillates up 1.275 million.
Energy prices rallied yesterday, and crude was up over 1% due to the Russian oil and fuel supply disruptions by Ukraine drone attacks on its oil ports and refineries. Also offering support to prices is today’s Fed meeting in which the market expects an interest rate cut with the most common figure being a quarter of a percentage point. Some would argue that this is already factored into the market. This outlook for the interest rate cut has pushed the US dollar to a 3-year low and when the dollar is down energy prices are up.
Goldman Sachs had calculated that 300,000 bpd of Russian oil refining capacity has been taken out in August and so far in September.
US retail sales increased more than expected in August as consumers bought a range of goods and dined out, but a weaking labor market and rising prices because of tariffs pose a downside risk to continued strength in spending.
The average estimate for today’s propane inventory update is for stock to be up 1.6 million barrels. During this reporting week the five-year average is a build of 1.423 million barrels.