OPEC+ agrees to increase oil production
March 4, 2025
The big news is that OPEC+ will go ahead with April oil output increases. They also said they would proceed with output hikes beyond April, but they did mention the disclaimer that they could pause or reverse the decision based on market conditions. OPEC+ will increase barrels back into the market in increment of approximately 135,000 per month beginning in April through 2026. According to JP Morgan, the logic behind this move is likely that OPEC+ needs to bring these barrels back eventually and might as well start now as we move into summer demand.
President Trump has gone through with his proposed tariffs on Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese imports. Chinese’s goods will have a 20% tariff. Mexico and Canada will have 25% tariff with the exception of Canadian energy imports which will be 10%. Most analysts expect this move to hurt demand.
The OPEC+ news is bearish to the market but the tariffs on Canadian energy products could impact the Midwest as most of their oil products are delivered to the Midwest, so it might be a balancing act of where Midwest prices are headed. But as mentioned above most market watchers see these tariffs causing prices to go higher and impacting demand in a negative way.
President Trump also halted military aid to Ukraine following his unproductive meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky on Friday.