IEA Forecasts EV Sales Growth
May 7, 2024
The energy markets are mixed this morning as there is confusion and a mix of stories about the Israel and Hamas ceasefire. Hours before Israel began and attack on Rafah, Hamas agreed to a ceasefire proposal from mediators. This was all to win the political sentiment of the day. But Israel said the terms did not meet their demands. Bottom line is that the fighting continues, and Israel took control of a vital crossing between Gaza and Egypt overnight.
Global petrol demand growth could halve in 2024, squeezing second-half refinery margins, analysts said, driven by a shift to electric cars in China and the United States and a return to normal consumption after last year’s bounce following COVID-19.
Reuters: “In the lowest growth since 2020, [global gasoline] demand is likely to rise 340Mb/d, to stand at 26.5MMb/d this year, says consultancy Wood Mackenzie, down from growth of 700Mb/d last year, as China nears the point of peak transport fuel demand, and the U.S. has surpassed it.”
“As falling prices spur demand [for EVs], the share of electric cars sold this year could reach 45% in China, about 25% in Europe and more than 11% in the United States, the IEA estimates.”
OPEC+ next meets on June 1st. The market sentiment is not expecting them to make any major changes to their current cuts but instead extend those cuts. OPEC countries have a lot of projects to pay for, and a production war (leading to lower crude prices) is at odds with those goals.
Technical traders are looking at WTI crude oil’s 100 day moving average around $78 which so far has supported prices and brought some buyers into the market. This is a key level which if the market can settle under this price would bring more selling to crude oil.