Morgan Stanley Publishes Bullish Outlook for Global Oil Markets in 2024
February 13, 2024
WTI crude oil prices rallied slightly along with RBOB gasoline which was up 1.6%. Brent crude oil prices however were down along with ULSD. The mixed prices in yesterday’s trading came as the market continues to wrestle with global demand outlooks, prospects for supply disruptions, and the tension in the Middle East.
Yesterday the New York Consumer Survey data showed a drop in the 3-year inflation outlook from 2.6% to 2.4%, which is dovish and helped support WTI crude oil prices to start the week.
Morgan Stanley published a more bullish outlook for global oil markets in 2024 with recent inventory declines and rising demand growth this year. Morgan Stanley raised the 2024 oil demand growth to 1.5 million bpd from 1.3 million bpd and lowered non-OPEC supply growth from 1.7 million bpd to 1.5 million bpd. Morgan Stanley also raised their price oil forecast for Brent crude oil to $80-$85 and WTI to $75-$80 for 2024.
Goldman Sachs said it remains “comfortable” with its forecast that Brent crude oil prices will range from $70 to $90 per barrel this year.
IEA Director Fatih Briol also used the word comfortable to describe the current state of the energy markets. He specifically noted swelling production from the America, predominantly the US, Canda, Brazil, and Guyana, and said world consumption will increase at a weaker pace than in 2023 due to slowing growth in key markets like China.