Energy Markets Congest on Surplus of News
May 11, 2023
Propane inventories increased by 3.112 million barrels in this week’s inventory update. Total stocks now sit at 61.404 million barrels. Total inventories are 17.180 million barrels more than last year at this time. The year over year surplus has been decreasing as we move forward in time. In March, the surplus year over year was at 70% and with this latest report it is now at 38.8%. Midwest stocks were up 683,000 barrels and total inventories are now 13.654 and last year they were 9.385. Gulf Coast inventories were up 1.586 million barrels, putting total inventories at 39.505 and last year they were 29.178. Exports are the main thing that can impact prices as if they stay strong, it will help eat into the surplus stocks and support prices. Exports were up 104,000 bpd this past week at 1.642 million bpd.
The Bloomberg estimate was for crude oil inventories to draw by 1.027 million barrel and the actual DOE report had crude up 2.95 million barrels. The gasoline estimate was for stocks to be down 947,000 barrels and the actual was down 3.17 million barrels. The estimate for distillates was down 809,000 barrels and the actual was down 4.17 million.
Total crude stocks are now at 462.584 million barrels and last year they were 424.214 million barrels. that is 38.370 million more barrels year over year.
Total gasoline stocks are now 219.711 and last year they were 224.968, a 5.257 million barrels difference year over year.
Total distillates sit at 106.153 and last year they were 104.029, a 2.124 surplus year over year.
The estimated demand for both gasoline and diesel from the DOE report both showed an increase this week. Gas was up 600,000 bpd to 10.063 million bpd, a strong number and not indicative of the recession fears that would impact demand negatively. ULSD is much the same up 420,000 bpd to 5.313 million bpd. Farmers have been working hard to get crops in the ground and reports indicate they are ahead of schedule, and the demand numbers are reflective of this.
The energy markets have been congested for the last few days as they have a lot to digest. It appears that the banking concerns and the US debt ceiling are keeping price hemmed in for now.