Market Commentary

The Iran situation continues to get worse and some of the things that have happened are worse than I ever thought so this is a surprise and prices have traded higher again as the uncertainty grows as this war continues. The Iran situation is front and center and it continues […]

It seems like every day the headline is the same; Iran tension escalate as the war continues. This narrative is driving prices higher and has brought out all the bulls as the Strait of Hormuz drama is adding to the fire as well and is bringing buyers as they fear […]

The DOE inventory report had crude oil inventories up 3.48 million barrels, gasoline down 1.70 million, and distillates up 430,000 barrels. Total crude inventories are now at 439.279 million barrels and last year they were 433.775 and the three-year average is 453.606. Total gasoline supplies are now at 253.130 and […]

Prices eased back after President Trump said he had asked the DOJ to provide reasonable insurance for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. He also said the US Navy would escort ships through strait if necessary. This news pulled prices off the highs, but we are far away from […]

Iran’s response on their Gulf neighbors has been a surprise with targeted attacks on energy infrastructure including Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG production facility which halted operations and Saudi’s Ras Tanura oil refinery. The headlines have also been active that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Iran’s IRGC said “the Strait […]

The news today is Iran, Iran, and Iran. Nothing earth-shattering has happened, but all eyes are on Iran and wondering what will happen next. I found this comment from President Trump a bit confusing and funny, especially considering the possibility of a US military attack looming. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special […]

Morningstar analysts believe the oil market has priced in a “higher probability of US intervention than political pundits,” per WSJ coverage. Despite the analysts at Morningstar thinking a limited strike on Iran’s military or nuclear sites is likely, impact to global oil flows are unlikely. Morningstar is holding a midcycle […]

The propane inventory report had supplies down 3.084 million barrels, which was less than expected. Total supplies now sit at 74.185 million barrels, 6 million barrels higher than the previous high for this week of the year all time. Midwest supplies were down 528,888 barrels putting total Midwest stocks 15.174 […]

The average estimate for today’s DOE inventory report from the Bloomberg survey are crude oil up 298,000 barrels, gasoline down 1.221 million barrels and distillate down 1.914 million barrels. The API inventory report called crude oil down 609,000 barrels, gasoline down 312,000, and distillates down 1.57 million barrels. The headlines […]

The energy market pulled back after Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, said Iran and he US reached an understanding on the main “guiding principles” in a second round of nuclear talks in Geneva. Work still needs to be done, and this doesn’t mean an agreement is on the way, there […]

The energy markets are stuck in congestion trying to figure out what will be the next shoe to drop. Crude traded in a dollar range yesterday. There is currently no conviction and that showed up in the volume of trade which was on the light side yesterday. The API inventory […]

Crude oil is trading sideway this morning after a quiet week last week that saw the Iran and US talks put some softness in prices as tensions eased. Iran has supposedly refused to end enrichment of nuclear fuel but emphasized their willingness to negotiate and prevent a US military strike.  […]